As golfers continue to return in their numbers to play St Andrews Old Course, I look at ballot success rates in 2024, with the effects of Covid firmly behind us.
Covid wiped out a lot of golf tourism in 2020 and 2021, especially for those destinations that normally welcome a high number of visitors from overseas. Those visitors, deprived of travel for two years, returned in their numbers in 2022 and 2023. So it comes as no surprise the success rate in the Old Course ballot for visitors almost halved from 20.15% in 2019 to just 11.78% in 2023.
So how has 2024 fared? Has the pent-up appetite for golf created by Covid subsided with demand returning to ‘normal’ levels? What’s the supply of tee times been like? Has the success rate jumped back up? The results are in, so read on for the full story…
The analysis
I’ve looked at St Andrews Old Course ballot data for each day there was a ballot from April 1st to October 31st 2024.
I’ve analysed how many ballot times were available – both ‘open’ (visitor) and ‘local’ (local ticket holders), how many ballot applications were successful and, using the number of unsuccessful applicants (or ‘overcards’), calculated the success rate.
Then I’ve produced the results as a daily averages, so as to compare with other periods in the past.
Finally, I’ve compared the results with my predictions for 2024.
Did my prediction that the daily average open ballot success rate was likely to decrease even further play out, despite the effects of Covid being in the past?
Yes it did!
Read on to see how …
Disclaimer:
Copyright: This content is the copyright material of Ginger Beer Golf Travel and permission is not granted to copy it or otherwise make use of it in any way.
– I am exceedingly grateful to St Andrews Links Trust for providing the overcard data (even though it no longer distinguishes between open and local ballot data) which has enabled me to provide analysis on the results. – Even though the daily ballot draw is publicly available, it must be stressed that these are neither ‘official’ statistics nor approved by St Andrews Links Trust as the analysis is based purely on my own interpretation of the draw data.
To the results then ….
Success rate
The daily average ballot success rate between April 1st and 31st October 2024 was 15.50% compared with 16.91% over the same period in 2023 (and 16.23% in 2022).
Roughly similar, but all just a little over half as successful as 2019 (28.2%).
Why 2019? It was the latest year pre-Covid and shows the impact the post-Covid landscape has had on current success rates.
St Andrews Links Trust no longer releases separate figures for open and local ballot overcards each day. So we do not have the success data for separate ballots from 2022 on. Success rate therefore is for open and local ballots combined.
However, we do have historic overcard data which shows that in both 2018 and 2019 around 91% of overcards were in the open ballot and only 9% were in the local one. Using this same ratio and applying it to 2024 data yields an estimated open ballot success rate of just 10.54%, and local success 45.84%, contributing to the combined success rate of 15:50%.
But both 2024 and 2023 were only a little over half as successful as 2019 (20.15%).
Open ballot success rates look quite similar, so did the same conditions apply in 2024 as in 2023?
The chance of success is simply governed by the relationship between the supply of ballot tee times and the demand for them on any given day. So let’s examine them separately …
Supply of ballot tee times
On average, on days when the ballot operated, 0.4 fewer ballot times per day were available in 2024 compared with 2023 (24.3 v 24.7). Not a significant reduction in supply.
Daily average number of open ballot times has decreased by 0.5 or 3.5% (13.7 v 14.2).
Daily average number of local ballot times has increased, but by a small margin (10.6 v 10.5).
How do these small changes translate into actual ballot tee times gained/lost over the previous year?
Let us look at the TOTAL number of ballot tee times …
The ballot was available on 5 fewer days in 2024 compared with 2023 (144 v 149). A 3.4% decrease.
In addition to the usual contributors to ‘Busy Dates’ (club ties, sponsor days, regular tournaments etc), hosting the AIG Women’s British Open would have reduced the number of available ballot days.
So, in terms of total ballot times …
184 fewer ballot times in 2024 compared with 2023 (3,498 v 3,682). A decrease of 5%.
That’s 141 or 6.7% fewer open ballot times (1,975 v 2,116) and 43 fewer local ballot times (1,523 v 1,566).
So, 0.5 fewer open ballot times on average each day for 144 days means around 72 open ballot times were lost during the year.
We can then say the remainder – around 69 (141 – 72) – have been lost owing to the ballot being available for fewer days.
In summary then: 141 fewer open ballot times in 2024 v 2023, with around 69 being lost by fewer ballot days, and around 72 by fewer open ballot times on ballot days.
Although 1,975 represents a relatively modest reduction compared with 2023, it’s 344 or almost 15% down on the supply in 2019, a pre-Covid normal year, with 2,319 tee times.
Everything equal then, with 5 fewer days available to ballot and 0.5 fewer times each day, we may expect a slight dip in the number of successful ballot cards and therefore a further small decrease in the success rate.
But, we have seen that the open ballot success rate has decreased significantly from 11.78% to 10.54%. A reduction of 10.5% (11.78 v 10.54).
So we must look at other factors, and in particular the demand side, to better understand this …
Demand for ballot tee times
The demand for ballot times can be quantified by the number of ballot applications made; i.e. the total number of ballot cards submitted.
On average, each day around 12.7 more cards (181.2 v 168.5) or 7.5% were submitted in 2024 v 2023.
Note too, there were 0.4 fewer successful cards in 2024 compared with 2023 (28.1 average per day v 28.5), broadly in line with 0.4 fewer ballot times being available (24.3 average per day v 24.7 – see earlier chart).
Let’s now look specifically at open ballot cards, having used our earlier 91% : 9% ratio of open to local ballot overcards as a basis for estimation …
On average, each day there were 0.6 fewer successful open ballot cards (16.4 v 17.0). This is to be expected, given we already know above that there were around 0.5 fewer open ballot tee times (13.7 v 14.2).
But, overall, there have been an estimated 11.3 more applications (155.7 v 144.4) or 7.8% daily on average, leading to an estimated 11.9 increase or 9.3% in daily unsuccessful applications in 2024 compared with 2023 (139.3 average per day v 127.4)
So, whilst the average number of open ballot times has reduced by 3.5% (13.7 v 14.2), equating to a 3.5% decrease in the number of successful cards (16.4 v 17.0), the overall success rate has deceased to a larger extent (10.54% v 11.78%) owing to the underlying 7.8% rise in demand (155.7 v 144.4 total open ballot cards).
To summarise, perhaps it’s good to look at actual results below compared with my prediction for 2023 at the end of 2022:
Actual results compared with my prediction for 2024
Looking at the current SALT Busy Dates calendar which identifies days when no ballot is available (including 17th to 26th August 2024 inclusive when the AIG Women’s British Open is held on the Old Course), I estimate a total of 144 days when the ballot should be available between 1st April and October 2024 inclusive. So a small but relatively insignificant decrease on 2023 (144 v 149). Yes – actual ballot days in 2024 = 144
I don’t expect this relatively small decrease in the number of ballot days compared with 2023 (144 v 149) to have a significant effect on reducing success rates.Success rates have fallen, but this is more a factor of increased demand rather than slightly reduced supply
However, I do not see any reduction in demand for an open ballot tee time over the next year. Indeed, my sense is for demand to continue increasing.Yes – Actual demand (measured by the average daily number of open ballot cards) has increased by 7.8%
Prediction for 2025
Looking at the current SALT Busy Dates calendar which identifies days when no ballot is available, and without any major tournaments being held in 2025, I see the number of ballot days returning back to normal. Around 153.
More ballot days should mean more ballot times, leading to an improved success rate assuming constant demand. What about demand? We have seen demand increasing year on year, putting downward pressure on success rates. Will it continue to rise?
As things stand, with an average daily success rate of 10.54% in 2024, I calculate you would need to ballot seven times in order to have a greater than 50% probability of success on at least one day (based on the binomial distribution). My experience is that as the cost of lodging, food and beverages continues to rise at pace (St Andrews has the highest average hotel room rates in the whole of Scotland), golfers (especially from overseas) will find it difficult to justify an expensive trip of more than a week when their main reason for coming – playing the Old Course – is no more than a 50:50 shot. At some point the numbers may just start not to stack up.
More likely it’s the cost of the trip that will put you off. In addition to lodging costs, green fees in and around St Andrews continue to rise on this back of this apparent insatiable desire to play the Old Course. Kingsbarns is up to £448 for 2025, Carnoustie £321 and Old Course itself is £340. Further afield, Trump Turnberry has announced an eye-watering £1,000 prime time rate for non-residents.
A combination of elevated costs and diminished chances of ballot success just doesn’t add up going forward and I feel at some point golfers, especially from far overseas, are just not going to want to make the trip. I feel we could see the increase in demand for a ballot time starting to tail off.
However, for the golfer who isn’t price-sensitive, demand may shift from the ballot to an advance guaranteed Old Course tee time option, to get the certainty of the tee time and the ability to lock in travel dates months or even years in advance, Some Authorised Providers are selling tee times 2027 tee times now, with 2026 pretty much sold out!
This may fuel further increases in golf and lodging costs in town which will affect everyone. It’s a worrying trend…
Some suggestions going forward
If these trends continue, what do they mean if you’re a golf tourist visiting St Andrews on a ballot-based trip in 2025 or beyond, or a Golf Tour Operator with such clients?
You should consider extending your stay and incorporating more ballot attempts into your itinerary to improve your chances of success. You could now view a stay of 8 or 9 nights (ballot is unavailable on Sundays) with at least 7 ballot attempts a bare minimum in order to have at least one success in the ballot. Calculation: using the binomial distribution, based on a 10.54% daily average success rate, 7 ballot applications should yield a 54.14% probability of at least one success (>50% means more probable of at least one success than not).
Expanding on this, 8 days of ballot attempts should give you a 59% chance of one success at least; 10 days increases your odds to 67%.
So, given earlier comments about the rising costs of St Andrews accommodations, maybe consider a two-location trip based on St Andrews and one other within easy distance of St Andrews so you can return to play if you get lucky in the ballot. Angus (for Carnoustie, Panmure and Monifieth), Aberdeen (for Royal Aberdeen, Trump International, Murcar and Cruden Bay), North Berwick (for West Links, Gullane, Muirfield) and Gleneagles (PGA Centenary, Kings, Queens) spring to mind.
You should expect more failed ballot days and prepare accordingly. For example, leave ballot days free in your itinerary then take advantage of resources to provide quality alternative golf options in case of ballot failure. For example, this extensive Last Minute Tee Times service provided by Ginger Beer Golf Travel covers availability for all the best alternative courses in the St Andrews area when the ballot results come out.
If the idea of planning a ballot-based trip to St Andrews is unattractive, given the likely low odds of success, then you should consider the other routes open to you to secure a guaranteed tee time. There still may be the odd guaranteed Old Course tee time package available for 2025 or 2026. Also, consider planning your trip even earlier – I can help you NOW to secure a tee time package for the month of your choice in 2027. Contact me for help in your quest.
A final thought for single golfers who can’t enter the ballot – through my popular Ballot Buddy service I can hook you up with another single so you can enter the ballot together and, if successful, avoid the Singles Daily Draw, available only 1 day ahead of play. I’ve got 47 single golfers out on the Old Course via the ballot in 2024!
Lastly, don’t lose sight that whilst the ballot is a lottery, it’s free and without commitment to enter and produces winners every day who go on to enjoy a round on the famous Old Course at the cheapest possible green fee rate (£340 for 2025 high season). It’s still the best ticket in golf, and you have to be in it to win it!
As always, I welcome all comments and questions.
This content is the copyright material of Ginger Beer Golf Travel and permission is not granted to copy it or otherwise make use of it in any way.
